全球变暖趋势的持续，使得空调产业的进出口贸易模式呈现了一些新的发展趋势和变化。中国空调产业作为全球空调产业中重要的一部分，为促进全球经济发展扮演了关键性角色；准确定位产业生命周期阶段，有利于培育具有国际竞争力的细分产业并实现产业创新，对于企业决策和政府产业政策起到关键作用。本文基于产品生命周期理论，对中国以及美国、日本、越南等国的空调产业净出口趋势做交互对比分析，综合运用含结构变化的单位根检验方法以及生长曲线拟合法，推估出中国空调产业周期变动趋势的拟合效果。最后，为实现我国空调产业的可持续发展，提出当前存在的问题及对策建议。

关键词：产品生命周期、空调产业、进出口贸易

The continuation of the global warming trend makes the import and export trade pattern of air-conditioning industry present some new development trends. As an important part of the global air-conditioning industry, China’s air-conditioning industry plays a key role in promoting global economic development. Accurate positioning of industry life cycle stages is beneficial to cultivating internationally competitive sub-sectors and realizing industrial innovation, and plays a key role in corporate decision-making and government industrial policies. Based on the product life cycle theory, this paper makes an interactive comparative analysis on the net export trend of air-conditioning industry in China, US, Japan and Vietnam. Unit root test method with structural changes and the growth curve fitting method are used to estimate the fitting effect of the periodic change trend of China’s air-conditioning industry. Finally, the existing problems and countermeasures are put forward in order to realize the sustainable development of air-conditioning industry in China.

Keywords: Product Life Cycle, Air-conditioning Industry, Import and Export Trade