本文选取2003年到2020年间中国和其他14个RCEP国家投资和贸易的面板数据，以中国对RCEP各国的对外贸易出口总量为被解释变量，以滞后一期的中国对RCEP国家的直接投资存量作为解释变量，控制经济规模、关税水平、贸易开放程度、人口规模和居民人均可支配收入，采用固定效应模型，实证检验中国对RCEP国家的直接投资产生的贸易效应。研究结果显示，中国对RCEP各国的直接投资对中国的出口具有显著的正向影响，对RCEP各国的直接投资可以显著带动中国贸易的出口；RCEP国家的经济规模、人口规模、贸易开放程度、居民人均可支配收入和中国的经济规模对中国的出口具有显著的正向影响；RCEP国家的关税水平对中国的出口具有显著的负向影响。因此，在日后中国与RCEP各国进行投资和贸易时，要合理发挥对外直接投资对出口的促进作用，通过投资带动贸易的增长，同时还要注意东道国的制度环境因素的影响，促进中国投资与贸易实现高质量的发展。

关键词：对外直接投资、贸易效应、区域经济合作伙伴关系

This paper selects panel data of investment and trade between China and 14 RCEP countries from 2003 to 2020. China's total exports to RCEP countries is selected as the explanatory variable and China's direct investment to RCEP countries with a lag period as the explanatory variable. Controlling economic scale, tariff level, trade openness, population size and per capita disposable income of residents, a fixed-effect model is constructed to empirically test the trade effect of China's direct investment to RCEP countries. The results show that China’s direct investment to RCEP countries has a significant positive impact on China's exports, and foreign direct investment can significantly drive China's exports. The economic scale, population scale, trade openness, per capita disposable income of residents and China's economic scale of RCEP countries have a significant positive impact on China's exports. The tariff level of RCEP countries negatively affects China's exports. Therefore, when China conducts investment and trade with RCEP countries, it is necessary to give full play to the complementary effect between China's foreign direct investment and trade, and promote the growth of trade through investment to achieved high-quality development.

Keywords: OFDI, Trade Effect, RCEP