c26636204.2022.07.01

中国与RCEP成员国贸易潜力分析

Potential Analysis of China's Trade with RCEP Member States

林飞烨 (Fei-Ye Lin)1*

1* 厦门大学嘉庚学院国际商务学院国际经济与贸易专业 linfeiye2022@163.com

当代国际社会逐渐多元,各种形态的贸易体制并存于世界经济中。2012年区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)应运而生,于2020年正式签订,其成员国包括中国在内的15个成员国,该协定主要措施为关税的削减。本文主要探讨RCEP建立前各成员国之间的经贸合作发展状况,继而基于全球贸易分析模型,借助最新的GTAP10数据库模拟,分析建立RCEP后降低关税对成员国和其他国家带来的经济效应变化,并依据分析结果提供相关建议,以实现互利共赢,推动各成员国经济繁荣,给世界经济注入全新动力。

关键词区域全面经济伙伴关系协定、经贸合作、全球贸易分析模型、关税削减、贸易潜力

In a variety of contemporary international society, the economy of the world has coexistence of a number of bilateral, regional and multilateral trade system. In 2012, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreements (RCEP) raised at the historic moment and officially signed in 2020. The member of the agreements has 15 member states which includes China. Cutting tariff is the main measures of this agreement. This main content of this article is regard to the development states of economic and trade cooperation between members before the RCEP was established. Then based on Global Trade Analysis Model, with the help of the latest GTAP10 database, to simulates and analysis the impact on member states and other countries while RCEP has been entirely set up. According to the results of analysis, some suggestions will be proposed to realize mutual benefit and win-win progress, promote the financial of member states prosperity, and provide new impetus to the world economy.

Keywords: RCEP, Economic and Trade Cooperation, Global Trade Analysis Model, Tariff Reduction, Trade Potential

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