近年来，由于中国经济实力的快速增长，贸易政策也随之不断改善，由此引起人民币的有效汇率不断走高，从常识理论来说，这将不利于中国商品的对外出口，并对贸易收支起到恶化的作用，而J曲线理论指出，在人民币贬值的过程中，会出现短暂的进口增加而出口减少的情况。由此可以推出，在人民币升值的过程中，是否会也出现出口增加而进口减少、贸易收支改善的相反情况，即出现所谓的反J曲线效应。

本文选取1995年到2019年中国的进口量、出口量以及贸易收支额作为被研究对象，人民币汇率、实际GDP、贸易伙伴的GDP指数、贸易政策作为解释变量，探究在中国是否真正存在实际意义上的反J曲线效应，从而对目前中国的经济形势做一些理论上分析和政策建议。在汇率方面选取实际有效汇率代替常用的对美元汇率，剔除了不同国家汇率不同的因素。其次本文将采用理论与实证相结合的方法进行综合分析，运用计量经济相关知识对数据采取单位根、协整、格兰杰因果等多方面检验，并建立了多元回归模型，力求完整分析出“反J曲线”效应。研究结果表明，在短期内人民币升值不会导致对外贸易的进口增加和出口减少，即不会引起我国对外贸易顺差的减少，存在时滞效应，人民币升值对我国贸易差额的影响存在“反J曲线”效应。

关键词：人民币、贸易收支、反J 曲线

Due to the rapid growth of economic strength, China's trade policy has also been improving and resulted in the rising effective exchange rate of the RMB which will not be conducive to China’s exports of goods and worsen the balance of payment. The J-curve theory points out that in the process of RMB depreciation, there will be a short increase in imports and a short decline in exports. Conversely, in the process of RMB appreciation, whether there will also be an increase in exports and a decrease in imports, which results in improvement of trade balance, that is, the so-called “Inverse J-curve” effect.

This paper selects China's import volume, export volume and trade balance amount from 1995 to 2019 as the subject of study. RMB exchange rate, real GDP, GDP index of trading partners, and trade policy are chosen as explanatory variables to explore whether there is a real Inverse J-curve effect in China and to propose some theoretical analysis and policy suggestions on China's current economic situation. In terms of exchange rate, the real effective exchange rate is selected instead of the commonly used exchange rate against the United States dollar, which excludes the different factors of different countries’ exchange rates. Secondly, this paper will use the combination of theory and empirical methods for comprehensive analysis along with the use of econometric analysis on unit root tests, co-integration tests, and Granger's causality tests to set up a multi-regression model for completing the analysis of the Inverse J-curve effect. The results show that RMB appreciation in the short term will not lead to the increase of foreign trade imports and export reduction, that is, will not cause the reduction of China's external trade surplus. The time lag effect will cause RMB appreciation on China’s trade balance to an Inverse J-curve effect.

Keywords: RMB, Trade Balance, Inverse J-curve