长时间以来，中国国际收支存在经常项目、资本和金融项目“双顺差”的失衡现象，尽管这在一定意义上能提高中国抵御外部冲击的能力，也有利于增强中国的综合国力与国际影响力，但也会给中国国民经济发展带来不良影响。本文以二元选择模型探讨中国国际收支出现“双顺差”格局的概率，实证中国国际收支占比与美元指数正向提高中国国际收支双顺差概率，而有效汇率与外人直接投资占比减低双顺差概率；本文并对于平衡中国国际收支提出具体政策建议，以保障国民经济持续健康发展。

关键词：国际收支平衡、双顺差、外汇储备、二元选择模型

For a long time, China’s balance of payments presented “double surplus” of current account and capital and financial account. Although this in a certain sense can improve China’s ability to resist external shocks and enhance the international influence of China’s comprehensive national strength, it also will bring adverse effects on China’s national economic development. This paper discusses the possibility of China’s “double surplus” in balance of payments with binary choice models. Results empirically show that China’s BOP/GDP ratio and USDX can positively increase the probability of China’s double surplus, while the effective exchange rate and FDI/GDP ratio act inversely. Policy recommendations on China’s balance of payments are proposed to ensure the sustainable and healthy development of the national economy.

Keywords: Balance of Payment, Double Surplus, Foreign Reserves, Binary Choice Models