需求偏好相似理论认为国际贸易是国内贸易的延伸，产品的出口结构、流向及贸易量的大小决定于本国的需求偏好；而一国的需求偏好又决定于该国的平均收入水平，因此大量贸易额应该存在于具有相似需求的国家。当前中国对外贸易呈现出经济总量接近发达国家，平均收入却属于发展中国家水平；且各国在不同类别商品贸易性质各异，对于需求偏好相似理论是否成立则需进一步验证。本文分别以1995年~2019年间，中国与发展中、转型和发达经济体之间，国内生产毛额与平均收入水平对一般商品与通信技术商品（ICT）的贸易结构进行实证分析，以检验中国的对外贸易结构是否符合需求偏好相似理论。研究结果显示需求偏好相似理论在中国对外贸易上存在显著的滞后效应，而需求偏好相似理论较能验证在中国对转型经济体间，以经济总量衡量的贸易，此结论在一般商品与ICT商品上并无差异。

关键词：需求偏好相似理论、一般商品、信息和通信技术产品、贸易结构

The theory of Preference Similarity holds that international trade is an extension of domestic trade, and the export structure, flow and volume are determined by the preference of the country which is determined by the average income level. Substantial trade should therefore exist in countries with similar needs. Currently, foreign trade of China shows that the total economic volume is close to that of developed countries, but the average income belongs to the level of developing countries. Moreover, the nature of trade in different categories of commodities varies from country to country, and further verification is needed on whether the theory of Preference Similarity is true. Based on total GDP and average income level, this paper discusses the trade structure of general commodities and information, communication and technology commodities (ICTs) between China and developing, transition and developed economies from 1995 to 2019. The results show that the theory of Preference Similarity has a significant lag effect on China's foreign trade and can be verified on the trade between China and transition economies in terms of total GDP. This is true for both general commodities and ICTs.

Keywords: Preference Similarity Theory, General Commodities, ICTs, Trade Structure