c27069273.2020.09.11
基于收入弹性调整的巨无霸指数的有效性
The Effectiveness of Big Mac Index Based on Income Elasticity Adjustment
源于购买力平价理论和一价定律的巨无霸指数,是一个用以测量两种货币的汇率是否合理的非正式经济指数。通过调整各国收入的差异以计算出调整后的巨无霸指数,可作为各国货币对于美元等基础货币隐含汇率高估或低估的近似值;而星巴克指数可以在一定程度上反映每个国家的物价水平,特别是中产阶级消费物价水平的高低。本文结合各国经济发展水平,以2019年为例,列出包含35个国家/地区的原始BMI、调整后BMI、收入弹性调整后BMI与星巴克指数进行比较,结果显示调整前后巨无霸指数显示的汇率高低估的差异极大,显示近年来巨无霸普遍已经成为收入弹性较低的正常品,而大部份国家货币兑美元低估现象明显减轻,部份国家甚至出现该国货币兑美元高估的现象,但星巴克指数并不存在此种现象。本文实证显示基于收入调整的BMI的高估偏误,与市场汇率的相关程度颇高。
关键词:巨无霸指数、调整后巨无霸指数、收入弹性、星巴克指数
The Big Mac Index, derived from Purchasing Power Parity theory and the law of one price, is an informal economic Index that measures the reasonableness of the exchange rate between two currencies. The adjusted Big Mac Index can be used as an approximation of the implied exchange rate of the currencies of each country against the Dollar and other base currencies, while the Starbucks Index can also reflect to some extent the price level of each country, especially the middle-class consumer price level. This paper, taking 2019 as an example, lists the raw BMI, adjusted BMI, income elasticity adjusted BMI and Starbucks Index of 35 countries/regions and shows that the difference in exchange rate of misevaluation shown by the Big Mac Index before and after the adjustment is very large, indicating that the Big Mac has generally become a normal good with lower income elasticity. The undervaluation of most countries' currencies against the US dollar has been significantly reduced, and some countries even have overvalued their currencies against the US dollar, but it is not true for the Starbucks Index. This paper empirically shows the overestimation bias of income elasticity-adjusted BMI is highly correlated with market exchange rate.
Keywords: Big Mac Index, Adjusted BMI, Income Elasticity, Starbucks Index