贸易市场集中有利于伙伴关系稳定与价格优势，但贸易过于依靠几大市场容易形成垄断，造成其对市场和价格的控制，甚至附加不合理的要求。实施多元化的市场战略有助于在国际贸易中争取有利的贸易条件，保证在国际交换和竞争中处于积极主动的地位。本文以1995年-2020年东盟国家的相关贸易数据，分析在全球价值链下东盟十国的贸易集中与分散状况，将之与实际汇率（RER）联系以检验其因果关系同时通过外国直接投资FDI（全球价值链参与的关键工具）和GDP作为控制变量，研究其如何与真实汇率一起影响进出口集中指数与分散指数,以及其如何与进出口集中指数与分散指数一起影响真实汇率。本文通过建立VAR模型，采用协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验，并通过脉冲响应分析研究变量间的相互作用。结果表明：在东盟十国中，实际汇率在部份国家对进出口集中与分散指数产生影响，进出口集中与分散指数也在部份国家对实际汇率产生影响，此种影响皆为单向而非双向，因此需要仔细地重新评估汇率在促进出口和在宏观经济调整过程中的作用。

关键词：全球价值链、进出口集中指数、进出口分散指数、实际汇率、外国直接投资

The concentration of trade markets is conducive to partnership stability and price advantage. Trade is too dependent on several major markets, however, will form monopolies that results in its control of the market and prices, and even attaching unreasonable requirements. The market diversification strategy is conducive to the pursuit of favorable terms of trade in international trade and ensures a proactive position in international exchange and competition. This paper uses the relevant trade data of ASEAN countries from 1995 to 2020 to analyze the trade concentration and dispersion of the ten ASEAN countries under the global value chain. The real exchange rate (RER) is linked to test the causal relationship between the trade index of import and export concentration index and the dispersion index together along with FDI (the key tool for global value chain participation) and GDP as the control variables. In this paper, the interaction between variables is studied by establishing a VAR model through the cointegration test, the Granger causality tests and the impulse response analysis. The results show that in the ten ASEAN countries, the real exchange rate has an impact on the import and export concentration and dispersion index in some countries, and the import and export concentration and dispersion index also have an impact on the real exchange rate in some countries, which is one-way rather than two-way, so the role of the exchange rate in promoting exports and in the macroeconomic adjustment process needs to be carefully reassessed.

Keywords: Global Value Chain, Import and Export Concentration Index, Import and Export Dispersion Index,

                  Real Exchange Rate, Foreign Direct Investment