“民以食为天”，大米作为我国国内居民最重要的粮食之一，近年来，大米进口成为新常态，数量持续攀升。大米进口贸易对保障中国大米储备以及粮食安全具有重要作用。对此国际波动的大小对我国粮食进口安全造成怎样的影响成为应该考虑的重要问题。本文通过建立结构向量自回归模型进行实证研究，采用平稳性检验、相关性检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验，并通过脉冲响应分析研究变量间的相互作用，分析2003年11月至2121年5月世界经济不确定性对我国稻米进口贸易的影响，结果显示：世界经济不确定性对我国稻米进口贸易的传导效果明显，其正面冲击会导致稻米进口量增加；国外价格对中国大米进口量从正影响转向负影响，具有J曲线效应；世界经济的冲击不仅会影响世界价格，同样会冲击国内大米贸易市场。

关键词：全球经济政策不确定性、进口贸易、农产品贸易、粮食安全战略

“Food is paramount to the people”, and rice is one of the most important foods for domestic residents in China. In recent years, rice imports have become the new normal, and the quantity continues to rise. Rice import trade plays an important role in ensuring China's rice reserves and food security. It is an important issue to consider how the international fluctuation will affect China's grain import security. In this paper, the structural vector autoregressive model is established for empirical research, and correlation test, stationarity test, Granger causality test and cointegration test are adopted, and the interaction between variables is studied by impulse response analysis. This paper analyzes the influence of global economic uncertainty on China's rice import trade from November 2003 to May 2021. The results show that the global economic uncertainty has a significant transmission effect on China's rice import trade, and its positive impact will lead to the increase of rice import. The influence of foreign prices on China's rice imports has changed from positive to negative, with J-curve effect; The impact of the world economy will not only affect the world price, but also the domestic rice trade market.

Keywords: Global Economic Policy Uncertainty, Import Trade, Agricultural Trade, Food Security Strategy