共同市场作为区域经济一体化所形成的利益共同体，对区域经济发展具有促进作用。国际收支能够反映一国对外贸易和经济实力，讨论国际收支在不同因素的影响下，如何因不同区域经济状态而有所差异，对建设区域发展有重要意义。本文利用多元回归模型，研究中美洲共同市场、东南非共同市场、南方共同市场在1998~2017年国内生产总值（GDP）、外商直接投资（FDI）、出口（EX）、进口（IM）、实际有效汇率（REER）和消费者物价指数（CPI）对国际收支（BOP）的影响；同时采用相关性检验、平稳性检验、格兰杰因果关系检验和协整检验，并通过脉冲响应分析研究变量间的相互作用。结果表明这三个共同市场的国际收支平衡的多元回归模型与预期相差较大，因为造成因素间影响复杂化，且一体化程度还有待提高。为了达到共同发展与合作共赢，各组织内可通过加强合作，提升一体化程度，找到最适合的发展方法和模式，创造更大价值。

关键词：共同市场、国际收支平衡、实际有效汇率、进出口贸易、外商直接投资

As a community of interests formed by regional economic integration, the common market plays a role in promoting regional economic development. The balance of payments (BOP) can reflect a country’s foreign trade and economic strength. It is of great significance to discuss how BOP varies due to different regional economic states under the influence of different factors. Using multiple regression model, this paper studies the effects of income, exchange rate, export, import, investment, and price on BOP in Central American common market, Southeast African common market and Southern Common Market from 1998 to 2017. Tests of correlation, stationary, causality and cointegration are conducted followed by impulse response analysis to study the interaction between variables. The results show that multiple regression models of BOP of the three common markets are quite different from the expectation due to the complex influence among factors and the degree of integration needs to be improved. In order to achieve common development and win-win cooperation, the communities can find the most suitable development method and model to create greater value by strengthening cooperation and improving the degree of integration.

Keywords: Common Market, Balance of Payments, Real Effective Exchange Rate, Import and Export Trade, Foreign Direct Investment