c26636204.2021.07.12

中国国际收支平衡变化的动态趋势

Dynamic Tendency of Changes in China's Balance of Payments

苏锦俊 (Chin-Chun Su)1*     柯郁馨 (Yu-Xin Ke)2   

1*厦门大学嘉庚学院國際商務学院教授 ccsujg@xujc.com

2厦门大学嘉庚学院国际商务学院国际经济与贸易专业

国际收支是一国在一定时期,居民与非居民之间全部国际经济交易的系统记录,反映了一国对外经济往来的全部货币价值总和,包括货物、服务和收入、对其他地区的金融债权债务的交易及转移项目。近几年来,中国的国际收支出现了结构性变化,本文从中国1982~2019年国际收支数据入手,区分为管理平衡阶段(1982~2000年)、非平衡扩张阶段(2001~2014年)与再平衡阶段(2015~2019年),并分别从经常帐户、资本与金融帐户、直接投资与储备资产几个方面,分析出现国际收支从平衡到失衡再回到平衡的原因与动态变化,提出中国国际收支失衡的应对措施。

关键词国际收支平衡、双顺差、经常帐、资本与金融帐、外商直接投资

The balance of payments is a systematic record of all international economic transactions between residents and non-residents over a certain time, which reflecting the sum of the total monetary values of a country's external economic dealings, including goods, services and income, transactions and transfers of financial claims and debts to other regions. In recent years, there have been structural changes in China's balance of payments. This research divides China's balance of payments data of 1982~2019 into the management balance phase (1982~2000), the non-balanced expansion phase (2001~2014) and rebalancing phase (2015~2019). Current account, capital and financial account, foreign direct investment, and reserve assets are analyzed respectively for the causes and dynamic tendency. The response measures are put forward for sustainability.

Keywords: Balance of Payments, Double Surplus, Current Account, Capital and Financial Account, Foreign Direct Investment

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