c26636204.2021.04.21
中印纺织品产业内贸易变动趋势分析
Analysis on the Trend of Trade Change in China and India's Textile Industry
自唐朝以来,中国和印度频繁地进行贸易往来,丝绸之路成为了两国之间贸易往来的重要渠道。与此同时,两个国家的消费者也有更多的需求偏好相似,对于产业内贸易的发展有着积极的促进作用。两个国家在纺织品行业中都迎来了朝气蓬勃的发展时期,其产业内贸易的发展也十分迅速,不断拉动两国经济贸易水平的持续上升。1995年中印双边贸易额为11.63亿美元,在二十年后的2014年突破700亿美元,到2019年已达到913.6亿美元,同比增长1.6%。通过这些数据可以发现,中印之间的贸易额对比其他发达国家还相差甚远,但两国目前的经济贸易正进行飞速的发展。中国和印度在世界中都是人口大国,市场份额较为庞大,随着近几年两国不断进行政治往来,其经济交往也不断加强,产业内贸易的发展也得以持续推动,且对双边贸易起一定的积极作用。本文基于对中印纺织品产业内贸易G-L指数变动以及影响两国纺织品的各类因素进行分析,深入探究中印纺织品产业内贸易的发展趋势,发现其主要的影响因素分别为中印两国的人均GDP差值、两国间净出口贸易差额、生产规模、外商直接投资以及两国的开放程度。通过研究结果可以更好地改善两国之间的贸易环境,进一步调整产业结构,以及推动两国经济实现贸易自由化。
关键词:中印纺织品、产业内贸易、影响因素
Since the Tang Dynasty, China and India have conducted frequent trade exchanges, and the Silk Road has become an important channel of trade between the two countries. At the same time, consumers in the two countries also have more similar demand preferences, which plays a positive role in promoting the development of intra-industry trade. Both countries have ushered in a period of vigorous development in the textile industry, and the development of intra-industry trade is also very rapid, which continuously promotes the continuous rise of trade economy and trade level of the two countries. In 1995, bilateral trade stood at US $1.163 billion. Two decades later, it exceeded US $70 billion in 2014 and reached US $91.36 billion in 2019, representing an annual growth of 1.6%. The trade volume between China and India is far behind that of other developed countries. However, the economic and trade between the two countries is developing rapidly. China and India are both populous countries in the world relatively larger market shares, and the trade development prospect between China and India is very broad. With the continuous political exchanges between China and India in recent years, their economic exchanges are also constantly strengthened. The development of intra-industry trade can be better promoted and plays a certain positive role in the development of bilateral trade. Based on the analysis of the change of G-L index of Sino-Indian textile intra-industry trade and various factors affecting the textiles of the two countries, this paper makes an in-depth study of the development trend of Sino-Indian textile intra-industry trade. The results reveal that the main influencing factors are the difference of per capita GDP between China and India, the trade balance of net exports between the two countries, the scale of production, foreign direct investment and the degree of openness of the two countries. The research results can better improve the trade environment between the two countries, further adjust the industrial structure, and promote the realization of trade liberalization in the two economies.
Keywords: Chinese and Indian Textiles, Intra-industry Trade, Influence Factor