随着中国经济水平的不断提高，木材的需求不断增大，中国逐渐成为世界木材进口大国，每年的木材进口量占世界总量的比重越来越大，面临的问题也越来越多，包括进口依赖度过大、进口市场过于集中、贸易保护主义的限制、环保问题的广泛关注等。本文运用需求弹性模型、风险指数模型和方差分析模型，解析中国在对29个国家进行原木进口贸易中遇到的难题和风险。分析结果显示中国原木进口需求的价格弹性不高，表明对于原木进口需求呈现稳定需求。总结中国木材进口的未来发展方向，应积极开拓新的进口来源地，使木材进口更加多元化、拒绝进口违反相关规定采伐的木材、建设速生木材培育基地，从而稳定木材供给并降低进口风险。

关键词：木材贸易、进口需求弹性、风险指数、方差分析

With the continuous improvement of China's economic level, the demand for wood is increasing. China has gradually become the world's largest timber import country and the proportion of annual timber imports in the world's total volume is increasing. The problems facing Chinese include excessive import dependence, over concentration of import market, restrictions from trade protectionism and widely concern of environmental protection issues. This paper analyzes the difficulties and risks encountered by China in the import trade of logs in 29 countries by using the demand elasticity model, the risk index model and the ANOVA analysis model. Results show that the price elasticity of China’s import demand for logs is not high, which shows stable demand for raw wood imports. Future development direction of China’s timber imports can be summarized as actively exploring new sources of imports, making wood imports more diversified, refusing to import timber harvested in violation of relevant regulations, and building fast-growing timber cultivation bases so as to stabilize the supply of timber and to reduce import risks.

Keywords: Wood Trade, Demand Elasticity of Import, Risk Index, ANOVA