本文首先分析中国与中东欧国家农产品贸易现状，得出双方合作总量较小但增速较快、中国贸易逆差明显、进出口农产品相对集中的基本结论；随后采用计量经济学向量自回归模型，搜集1993-2017共25年数据，构建农产品贸易额与地区生产总值、农业就业人员占比、农业增加值、农产品贸易竞争力指数之间的预测模型，预测精度为3.88%，预计中国与中东欧国家农产品贸易在2018年会存在较明显下滑趋势，并提出发展绿色冷链物流、提高农产品质量、扩大农业合作范围、建造完备信息沟通途径等发展建议。

关键词：中东欧、农产品贸易、向量自回归模型、预测

The article first analyzes the status quo of agricultural products trade between China and Central and Eastern European countries with the basic conclusions that total cooperation between the two sides is small but the growth rate is fast, China's trade deficit is obvious, and the import and export agricultural products are relatively concentrated. Subsequently, econometric model VAR is used by collecting data in 1993-2017 for a total of 25 years to construct a forecast model between the trade volume of agricultural products and the regional GDP, the proportion of agricultural employment, the agricultural value added, and the agricultural trade competitiveness index. The model prediction accuracy is 3.88%. It is expected that the agricultural trade between China and Central and Eastern European countries will have a relatively obvious downward trend in 2018. Suggestions of the study are proposed as constructing logistics network, developing green cold chain logistics, improving the quality of agricultural products, expanding the scope of agricultural cooperation, and building complete information communication channels.

Keywords: Central and Eastern Europe, Agricultural Products Trade, VAR, Forecast