国际收支是一国对外经济与金融关系的总结，反映该国在国际上的经济地位和宏观与微观经济的运行。汇率作为两国货币的相对价格，变动方向必然对一国贸易产生影响，而贸易又反过来作用于国际收支，二者相互联系，彼此影响。中国依靠完善的产业链和发达的制造业，连年保持巨额的国际收支盈余；同时，受到疫情影响和产业转型压力，中国内部同样面临着通货膨胀风险和失业率上升的压力。在开放经济下，通过宏观政策的调节可以使一国达到内外部的同时均衡，但其调整过程需审慎为之。本文从直接汇率与真实有效汇率的角度，运用改进的斯旺模型建立内部与外部均衡的多元回归方程，并以真实有效汇率探究中、日、英、美四国汇率与宏观政策的动态变化，依此提出中国应实行支出增减政策和支出转换政策的建议。

关键词：真实有效汇率、内外部均衡、改进的斯旺模型、国际收支调节

The balance of payments (BOPs) is a summary of the foreign economic and financial relations of a country, reflecting the country's international economic status and the operation of the macro and micro economy. As the relative price of the two currencies, the direction of change of the exchange rate will inevitably have an impact on a country's trade, and trade in turn acts on the BOPs, and the two are interrelated and affect each other. China has maintained a huge annual BOPs surplus relying on a sound industrial chain and developed manufacturing industry. At the same time, affected by the epidemic and the pressure of industrial transformation, China is also facing the pressure of inflation risk and rising unemployment rate. Under the open economy, both internal and external equilibrium can be achieved through the adjustment of macro policies, but its adjustment process needs to be cautious. From the perspective of direct exchange rate and real effective exchange rate, this paper uses the improved Swan model to establish the multiple regression equation of internal and external equilibrium, and explores the dynamic changes of exchange rates and macro policies in China, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States with real effective exchange rates. Suggestions are proposed for China to properly implement the related policies.

Keywords: Real Effective Exchange Rate, Internal and External Equilibrium, Improved Swan Model, Balance of Payments Adjustment