J曲线反映了汇率变动受短期弹性限制，先引起国际收支恶化的现象。本文利用多元回归模型，以中国1994~2021年的汇率（ER）、国际收支平衡波动率（BOPR）与年国内生产总值（GDP）的数据，分析对国际收支平衡（BOP）的影响。本文同时采用平稳性检验、格兰杰因果关系检验和协整检验，并通过脉冲响应实证人民币汇率（ER）变动引起的国际收支平衡（BOP）变动，既符合J曲线效应也符合反J曲线的效应。

关键词：汇率、国际收支平衡、脉冲响应、J曲线、反J曲线

The J-curve reflects the deterioration of the balance of payments caused by the short-term flexibility of exchange rate fluctuations. This paper uses multiple regression model to analyze the impact of exchange rate (ER), balance of payments volatility (BOPR) and annual gross domestic product (GDP) on China’s balance of payments (BOP) from 1994 to 2021. In this paper, stationarity test, Granger Causality test and cointegration test are used simultaneously. Through impulse response, we demonstrate that the change of the balance of payments (BOPR) caused by the change of RMB exchange rate (ER) conforms to both the J-curve effect and the inverse J-curve effect.

Keywords: Exchange Rate, Balance of Payments, Impulse Response, J-Curve, Inverse J-Curve