真实有效汇率是指一国商品和劳务的相对价格，作为一个具有重要意义的经济指标，它在国际市场上通常被用来衡量一个国家的竞争力。自中国入世以来，人民币汇率一直处在小幅波动之中。为了探讨人民币的长期趋势，本文以1990年至2021年的数据，运用灰色关联分析以及线性回归分析模型来研究在开放经济模型下，中国的历年真实有效汇率与国际收支经常账、国际收支资本金融账、失业率、通胀率、居民消费价格指数的长期波动趋势与相关性。本文结论显示真实有效汇率可以通过国际收支资本金融账、失业率与居民消费价格指数进行自我调节，而不易通过国际收支经常账与通胀率进行调节；本文并详细分析开放经济下的政策工具，为中国今后的汇率形成机制改革和调节内外部均衡提供了方向。

关键词：开放经济模型、真实有效汇率、国际收支、相关性分析

Real effective exchange rate refers to the relative price of a country's goods and services. As an important economic indicator, it is usually used to measure a country's competitiveness in the international market. Since China's accession to the WTO, the RMB exchange rate has been fluctuating slightly. In order to explore the long-term trend of the RMB, this paper uses the data from 1990 to 2021, applying Grey Correlation analysis and linear regression analysis model, to study the long-term fluctuation trend and correlation between China's real effective exchange rate and the current account balance of payments, capital and financial account balance of payments, unemployment rate, inflation rate and consumer price index under the open economic model. The conclusion of this paper shows that the real effective exchange rate can be self-regulated through the capital and financial account balance of payments, unemployment rate and consumer price index, and is not easily adjusted through the current account balance of payments and inflation rate. This paper also analyzes in detail the policy tools under the open economy, which provides a direction for China's future reform of the exchange rate formation mechanism and the adjustment of internal and external equilibrium.

Keywords: Open Economy Model, Real Effective Exchange Rate, Balance of Payments, Grey Correlation Analysis