在经济全球化步伐不断加快的背景下，国际收支是反映国际间经济往来和交易流量最科学、最完整的记录。一国的国际收支会对其利率、汇率、贸易、财政、外汇管理和对外投资等方面产生重要的影响，国际收支平衡也成为分析区域经济情况的重要指标，研究与国际收支相关的问题在日益开放和发展的经济中显得越来越重要。在已有的国际收支调节理论基础上，仍存在不同发展区域存在的国际收支不平衡问题，本文在多元回归模型基础上对不同发展状态的区域进行分析，同时采用平稳性检验、格兰杰因果关系检验和协整检验，分析研究变量间的相互作用。实证分析表明，收入效应、投资效应、出口效应、进口效应、汇率效应和价格效应六个单一变量与国际收支平衡之间不存在明显的因果关系，但是无法排除多元变量对其的影响。实证结果亦显示，影响国际收支调节的诸多因素皆受金融海啸冲击而呈现结构性反转，仅有发达经济体中的汇率效应与预期不符；发展中经济体与转型经济体的汇率效应虽与预期相符，但并未出现结构性反转现象，显示其汇率仍属较为管制性汇率制度，汇率自由度仍不足。

关键词：国际收支、实际有效汇率、进出口贸易、外商直接投资、消费物价指数

Under the background of the accelerating pace of economic globalization, the balance of payments is the most scientific and complete record of international economic exchanges and transaction flows. The balance of payments of one country will have an important impact on its interest rates, exchange rates, trade, finance, foreign exchange management and foreign investment, and balance of payments has become an important part of the analysis of regional economic situation so as to better formulate corresponding economic policies. Research on issues related to the balance of payments is becoming more and more important in an increasingly open and developing economy. On the basis of the existing theory of balance of payments adjustment, there are still the problems of balance of payments imbalance in different development regions. Based on the multi-regression model, this paper empirically analyzes regions with different development states according to income effect, investment effect, export effect, import effect, exchange effect and price effect to balance of payments. There is no obvious causal relationship between them, but the effect of multiple variables on them cannot be ruled out. Empirical results demonstrate that factors affecting balance of payments adjustment are structural reversals caused by the impact of the financial crisis, and only the real exchange rate effect in advanced economies is not in line with expectations. The real exchange rate effects of developing and transition economies are in line with expectations without structural reversal, indicating that their exchange rates remained a more regulated exchange rate regime and that exchange rate freedom was still insufficient.

 Keywords: Balance of Payments, Real Effective Exchange Rate, Import and Export Trade,Foreign Direct Investment, Consumer Price Index