c26636204.2022.01.03

独联体、安第斯共同体与加勒比共同体的国际收支研究

Studies of Balance of Payments on The Commonwealth of Independent States,

The Andean Community and The Caribbean Community

刘洋 (Yang Liu )1*      曾宏宇 (Hong-Yu Zeng)2  

1* 厦门大学嘉庚学院国际商务学院国际经济与贸易专业 1554025148@qq.com

2 成都理工大学经济学专业

随着世界不断发展和进步,很多国家互相联盟,组成了共同体与共同市场等组织,但根据数据可以发现,这种组织内国家之间的国际收支水平差距较大,其国际收支调节方式亦有所不同。本文利用多元回归模型,探讨1998~2017年独联体、安第斯共同体与加勒比共同体的收入效应、价格效应、汇率效应、进口效应、出口效应、投资效应六个指标,对这三个共同体国际收支平衡的影响。结果表明三个共同体都会受金融海啸冲击而呈现效应反转,独联体先于安第斯共同体,而加勒比共同体紧追其后;且安第斯共同体的国际收支调节机制较符合预期,加勒比共同体的国际收支发展较为平稳,独联体则长期处于国际收支赤字,亟需对症下药,找出导致国际收支不平衡的原因。

关键词:国际收支平衡、实际有效汇率、进出口贸易、外商直接投资、共同体

With the continuous development and progress of the world, many countries have joined each other to form organizations such as communities and common markets. According to the data, it can be found that the balance of payments differs among these countries, and the adjustment mechanism of that diverges as well. Using the multiple regression model, this paper discusses the income effect, price effect, exchange rate effect, import effect, export effect and investment effect of Commonwealth of Independent, Andean Community and Caribbean Community from 1998 to 2017, and the impact of the balance of payments of these three organizations. The results show that all three communities will be affected by the financial tsunami and show an effect reversal, with Commonwealth of Independent preceding, followed by Andean Community and Caribbean Community. The balance-of-payments adjustment mechanism of Andean Community is more in line with expectations, and that of the Caribbean Community is more stable. The Commonwealth of Independent is in a long-term balance-of-payments deficit, and there is an urgent need to cure the problem by finding out the causes of the imbalance.

Keywords: Balance of Payments, Real Effective Exchange Rate, Import and Export Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, Community

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