在经济全球化的背景下，世界各国的经济往来与联系变的日益密切，全球经济与世界市场日益一体化，国际经济一体化可以分为多边一体化和区域一体化。一国的国际收支会对其利率、汇率、贸易、财政、外汇管理和对外投资等方面产生重要的影响，国际收支平衡也成为分析区域经济情况的重要指标，从而更好地制定相应的经济政策。本文在多元回归模型基础上，对四个不同地区的经济同盟进行模型分析，同时采用平稳性检验、格兰杰因果关系检验和协整检验，通过脉冲响应分析研究变量间的相互作用。实证分析表明，对亚太经济合作组织来说，投资、物价、所得和进口对国际收支平衡调节的影响较大，在国际收支平衡的调节中可以发挥一定的作用；对南亚区域合作联盟来说，投资和汇率的影响较大，在国际收支平衡的调节中可以发挥一定的作用；对于中西亚经济合作组织和海湾合作委员会而言，则无法确定哪一个效应对国际收支平衡调节的影响最大。组织成员国数量多，国家之间差异性大很难统一，造成因素间影响复杂化；为了达到共同发展，合作共赢，各组织内部应该加强合作，组织间应该互相学习，找到最适合的发展方法和模式。

关键词：区域经济一体化、经济同盟、国际收支、实际有效汇率、外商直接投资

In the context of economic globalization, the economic interaction and contact among countries in the world become increasingly close, and the global economy and world market are increasingly integrated. International economic integration can be divided into multilateral integration and regional integration. The balance of payments of a country will have important influence to the interest rate, exchange rate, trade, finance and foreign investment, and foreign exchange management. The balance of payments also become an important index for the analysis of the regional economic situation to better formulate corresponding economic policy. Based on the multiple regression model, this paper theoretical analyzes four of the economic alliance models. The stationarity test, Granger causality test and Johansen co-integration test are used to study the interaction between variables through impulse response analysis. The empirical results show that FDI, CPI, GDP and IM have a great impact on BOP, and can play a certain role in the adjustment of the balance of payments to the APEC. For the balance of payments of SAARC, FDI and REER both have a great impact on BOP, which can also play a certain role in the adjustment of the balance of international payments. However, it is impossible to determine which effect has the greatest influence on BOP for ECO and GCC. The number of member countries of the organization is large, and the differences among countries are very difficult to be unified, which results in the complicated influence among factors. In order to achieve common development and win-win cooperation, the organizations should strengthen internal cooperation and learn from each other to find the most suitable development methods and models.

Keywords: Regional Economic Integration, Economic Alliance, Balance of Payments, Real Effective Exchange Rate, Foreign Direct                    Investment