c27069273.2021.03.07

金砖背景下中国旅游服务贸易国际竞争力的影响因素研究

Research on the Influencing Factors of International Competitiveness of China's Tourism Service Trade under the Background of BRICs

侯慧芳 (Hui-Fang Hou)1*     许露 (Lu Xu)2  

1*厦门大学嘉庚学院国际商务学院讲师 hfhou@xujc.com

2厦门大学嘉庚学院国际商务学院国际经济与贸易专业

服务贸易是全球经济贸易增长的重要引擎,也是金砖国家未来合作中的重要领域。本文介绍了金砖五国的旅游服务贸易发展概况,并结合IMS、TC、RCA和CA指数,对国际竞争力的综合指数做出整体分析,得到中国的旅游服务贸易国际竞争力在金砖五国中的综合排名结果;然后以波特钻石模型为理论基础,选取中国1998~2019年的数据,利用格兰杰因果关系检验分析,得出人均GDP、国内旅游收入和星级饭店数量对中国的旅游服务贸易国际竞争力影响最为显著;即国家经济实力的提高,旅游服务贸易的需求拉动以及旅游相关支持性产业的发展,都会刺激中国旅游服务贸易国际竞争力的提升。本文以此提出相应的政策发展方向,以期为中国旅游服务贸易的转型升级提供可供参考的建议。

关键词:金砖五国、国际竞争力、旅游服务贸易

Trade in services is an important engine for the growth of global economy and trade. It's also an important area of BRICs cooperation in the future. This paper introduces the development of tourism service trade in the BRICs countries and makes an overall analysis of the comprehensive index of international competitiveness by combining the IMS, TC, RCA and CA indexes to obtain the comprehensive ranking results of China’s international competitiveness of tourism service trade in the BRICs countries. Then, based on Porter's Diamond model, this paper selects the data of China from 1998 to 2019 and uses Granger causality test to analyze and conclude that per capita GDP, domestic tourism income and the number of star hotels have the most significant impact on the international competitiveness of China's tourism service trade, that is, the improvement of national economic strength, the pull of tourism service trade demand, and the development of tourism related supporting industries will stimulate the improvement of international competitiveness of China's tourism service trade. This paper puts forward the corresponding policy development direction in order to provide reference suggestions for the transformation and upgrading of China's tourism service trade.

Keywords: BRICs, International Competitiveness, Tourism Service Trade

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