c27069273.2020.09.10
原始与GDP调整后巨无霸指数的实证分析
An Empirical Analysis of the Raw and GDP-adjusted Big Mac Index
自巨无霸指数提出以来,以其原理的简单性和构建的简洁性,在对各个国家的货币汇价评估以及预测长期的汇率波动趋势等方面扮演着极其重要的角色。但在传统的巨无霸指数测算当中,忽略了非贸易品的成本所带来的影响,使得用其对各国货币汇价的评估及对长期汇率的预测结果与真实结果出现不小的差距。本文结合各国的经济发展水平,对传统的巨无霸指数进行调整。经过对各国数据进行分析和测算后,发现调整后的巨无霸指数与各国的实际情况更为符合,这也使得调整后的巨无霸指数更加具有代表性和可比性。
关键词:巨无霸指数、购买力平价、最佳拟合线
Since the introduction of the Big Mac Index, with its simplicity of principle and construction, it has played an extremely important role in evaluating currency exchange rates of various countries and predicting long-term exchange rate fluctuation trends. However, in the raw Big Mac Index calculation, the impact of the cost of non-traded goods is ignored, which makes the evaluation of the currency exchange rate of various countries and the prediction of the long-term exchange rate quite different. Therefore, this article will adjust the raw Big Mac Index based on the economic development level of various countries. After analyzing and calculating the data of various countries, it is found that the GDP-adjusted Big Mac Index is more in line with the actual situation of each country. This also makes the GDP-adjusted Big Mac Index more representative and comparable.
Keywords: Big Mac Index, Purchasing Power Parity, Best Fit Line