c27069273.2021.03.13

巨无霸指数收敛性与稳定性的动态分析

Dynamic Analysis of the Big Mac Index on the Convergence and Stability

杨国梁 (Grant G.L. Yang)1*    刘舒霖 (Shu-Lin Liu)2 

1*厦门大学嘉庚学院国际商务学院副教授 grant@xujc.com

2厦门大学嘉庚学院国际商务学院国际经济与贸易专业

根据购买力平价理论的巨无霸指数,自1986年编制以来,一直以经验法则作为国际货币估值过度或不足的依据。此理论使用巨无霸汉堡作为可交易的一篮子,其美元或其他基础货币价值,应该由于套利行为而在世界各地达到均衡。作为汇率变动的指标,文献一般支持巨无霸指数可作为富国和经济稳定国家名义汇率变动的定性指标,但在预测新兴市场汇率变动方面的效果较低;此外,巨无霸指数于全球的普遍使用,也导致其估值在时间波动下是否存在收敛性与稳定性的问题。本研究采用2000年4月至2012年7月,以及2013年1月至2020年7月两个时段,5个国家(地区)的美元、欧元、英镑、日元、人民币等全球五种货币为基础的巨无霸指数,以单位根检验与邹检验进行不同时段、不同基础货币、不同经济发达程度的动态数据检测,其结果能对于巨无霸指数在金融、国际贸易以及国际商业领域的永续与广泛使用起重要作用。 

关键词:巨无霸指数、购买力平价理论、汇率动态、收敛性、稳定性

According to Purchasing Power Parity theory, the Big Mac Index (BMI) has been used as the rule of experience for the basis as overvaluation or undervaluation of international currencies since its inception in 1986. This theory uses Big Mac burgers as a basket of tradable goods based on dollars or other base currencies whose value should be balanced around the world as a result of arbitrage. As an indicator of exchange rate movements, the literature generally supports the fact that the BMI can be used as a qualitative indicator of nominal exchange rate movements in rich and/or economically stable countries, but it is not the case of emerging countries. The general use of the BMI also leads to the question of convergence and stability in the presence of time fluctuations. The study used BMI data from 5 different countries (regions) and 5 base currencies. Unit Root Test is used for the dynamic convergence and stability and Chow Test is used for structural difference. Results of the study can play an important role in the sustainable and widespread use of the Big Mac Index in the fields of finance, international trade, and international business.

Keywords: Big Mac Index, Purchasing Power Parity Theory, Exchange Rate Dynamics, Convergence, Stability

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