在世界范围内，经济开放程度不断提高，国际贸易往来也日趋频繁，中国经济面临着更加复杂的发展环境，经济内部和外部失衡问题制约中国经济健康有序发展。本文基于改进型斯旺模型，研究中国经济存在的矛盾冲突，分析近十五年来国际收支顺差继续扩大势态和通胀压力持续存在造成的经济内外失衡的现象，由此得出中国经济所处经济内外失衡的区域。本文并利用灰色关联法验证中国历年国际收支与真实有效汇率、货币政策、财政政策、失业率、通胀率的长期波动趋势与相关性，从而得出国际收支与真实有效汇率、失业率、通胀率等均存在较高且相近的相关性。本文结论提出应采用紧缩的支出增减政策和支出转换政策，搭配人民币相对升值的政策，来调节经济内外失衡问题，以确保国内经济回归到内外均衡的健康发展形式。

关键词：真实有效汇率、内外失衡、斯旺模型、政策选择

The degree of economic openness is constantly improving in the world and international trade exchanges are becoming more and more frequent. China's economy is facing a more complex development environment and the problem of internal and external imbalances restricts the healthy and orderly development of China's economy. Based on the improved Swann Model, this paper studies the conflicts in China's economy, analyzes the imbalance between the economy caused by the continuous expansion of the balance of payments surplus and the persistence of inflationary pressures in the past fifteen years. This paper also uses the Grey Correlation method to verify the long-term fluctuation trend and correlation between China's balance of payments and the real effective exchange rate, monetary policy, fiscal policy, unemployment rate and inflation rate over the years, so as to obtain a high and similar correlation between the balance of payments and the real effective exchange rate, unemployment rate and inflation rate. The conclusion proposes that the contractionary expenditure changing policy and expenditure switching policy should be adopted coupled with relative appreciation of the RMB to adjust the imbalance economy to ensure that the domestic economy returns to the healthy development.

Keywords: Real Effective Exchange Rate, Internal and External Imbalance, Swan Model, Policy Choice