新加坡是一个较为发达的资本主义国家，其经济模式为“国家资本主义”，是继纽约、伦敦、香港之后的第四大国际金融中心，也是全球最开放的经济体之一，经济金融实力不容小觑。近年来在国际收支方面，新加坡经常账户顺差扩大，国际储备略有下降。本文对其经常账户顺差进行研究，分析显示国内生产总值（GDP）、实际有效汇率（REER）、出口（EX）、进口（IM）和外商直接投资（FDI）五个单一变量与国际收支平衡（BOP）之间不存在明显的因果关系，但是无法排除多元变量对其的影响。本文利用多元回归模型探讨1998年~2017年新加坡的收入效应、价格效应、出口效应、进口效应、投资效应对新加坡国际收支平衡的影响，结果表明新加坡国际收支平衡受到贸易进出口的影响较大，实际有效汇率的汇率效应次之，外商直接投资效应和国内生产总值的收入效应影响程度较小。本文依此结果在货币、财政、汇率和资金融通等方面对新加坡国际收支的改善给予一定建议。

关键词：国际收支平衡、国内生产总值、实际有效汇率、进出口贸易、外商直接投资

Singapore is a relatively developed capitalist country with the economic model of “state capitalism”. It is the fourth largest international financial center after New York, London and Hong Kong, and also one of the most open economies in the world. In recent years, in terms of the balance of payments, Singapore's current account surplus has expanded and its international reserves have declined slightly. In this paper, the current account surplus is studied and the analysis shows that there is no obvious causal relationship between the five single variables of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), Export (EX), Import (IM) and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Balance of Payments (BOP), but it is impossible to rule out the effect of multiple variables on them. This paper uses the multiple regression model to explore the impact of Singapore's income effect, price effect, export effect, import effect and investment effect on Singapore's BOP from 1998 to 2017. Suggestions on the improvement of Singapore’s BOP are proposed in terms of currency, finance, exchange rate and capital and financial communication.

Keywords: Balance of Payments, GDP, Real Effective Exchange Rate, Import and Export Trade, Foreign Direct Investment