外商直接投资可视为一种涵盖先进技术、知识等要素的复合资本，对东道国经济增长有多方面的影响；而河南省在深化自由贸易的政策下，持续推动空中、陆上、互联网、海上丝绸之路的协同发展，以形成全方位、多层次与宽领域的经济增长。本文利用多元回归模型，以河南省1985~2018年外商直接投资与净出口贸易数据探究其对经济增长的影响。本文同时采用平稳性检验、格兰杰因果关系检验和协整检验，并通过脉冲响应分析研究变量间的相互作用。结果表明外商直接投资与净出口皆对河南省经济增长具有正向促进作用，其中净出口的影响稍大于外商直接投资；但此影响在2008年金融危机后产生负向冲击，对于外商直接投资尤甚。因此，在中美贸易争端升级和新冠肺炎疫情的不利影响下，河南省应持续利用政策刺激出口，并着力中小企业升级转型、支持高新技术企业，应对外商直接投资变化对经济增长可能带来的负面影响，促进经济稳定发展。 

关键词：外商直接投资、经济增长、东道国、时间序列分析

Foreign direct investment can be regarded as a kind of compound capital covering advanced technology, knowledge and other factors, which has multiple effects on the economic growth of the host country. Under the policy of deepening free trade, Henan Province continues to promote the coordinated development of air, land, Internet and maritime Silk Road in order to form all-round, multi-level and wide-ranging economic growth. This paper explores the impact of foreign direct investment and net export on economic growth in Henan Province from 1985 to 2018, using the multiple regression model. At the same time, the unit root test, the Granger causality test and the cointegration test are used, and the interaction between variables is studied through pulse response analysis. The results show that both foreign direct investment and net exports have a positive effect on the economic growth of Henan Province, of which the impact of net exports is slightly greater than that of foreign direct investment. However, this impact had a negative impact after the 2008 financial crisis, especially for foreign direct investment. Therefore, under the adverse effects of the COVID-19 and trade disputes between Sino-US, Henan Province should continue to stimulate exports by policies such as upgrading and transforming small and medium-sized enterprises and supporting high-tech enterprises to cope with the possible negative impact of changes in foreign direct investment on economic growth and to promote stable economic development.

Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Growth, Host Country, Time Series Analysis