有效汇率是衡量一国货币与主要外币兑换比率和价值的综合指标，传统理论认为有效汇率主要取决于贸易或经常项目收支情况。本文通过对中国的国际收支平衡表以及国际清算银行发布的人民币名义有效汇率与实际有效汇率的观察，发现贸易规模和经常项目收支的变动并不足以解释有效汇率的短期波动；此外，在理论上属于随机统计误差的“净误差与遗漏”项具有显著的非随机特征。本文进一步地分析显示，除了国际贸易因素之外，人民币有效汇率的变化还受到国际主导货币走势（美元指数）和统计误差与遗漏项滞后效果的影响。由于统计误差、遗漏项与隐性资本流动和国际“热钱”存在密切关系，这意味着“热钱”进出可能是导致人民币有效汇率短期波动的主要因素之一。

关键词：有效汇率、双顺差、国际收支平衡、热钱、滞后效果

The effective exchange rate is a comprehensive measure of the ratio and value of a country’s currency to major foreign currencies, and the traditional theory holds that the effective exchange rate depends mainly on trade or current account balances. Through the observation of China’s Balance of Payments and the real effective exchange rate of RMB issued by the Bank for International Settlements, this paper finds that the changes in trade scale and current account balance are not sufficient to explain the short-term fluctuations of the effective exchange rate. The “net error and omission” items, which are theoretically random statistical errors, have significant non-random characteristics. The paper further shows that, in addition to international trade factors, changes in effective exchange rate of RMB are also affected by the trend of the international leading currency (USD Index) and lag effects of statistical errors and omissions. Because of the close relationship between statistical errors and omissions and hidden capital flows and international “hot money”, this means that “hot money” in and out may be one of the main factors leading to short-term fluctuations in the effective exchange rate of the RMB.

Keywords: Effective Exchange Rate, Double Surplus, Balance of Payments, Hot Money, Lag Effects