在全球经济一体化的影响下，各国之间的国际收支不平衡反映了各国生产要素的配置和结构。为减少经常帐户逆差，各国一般采用贬值措施，以增加出口竞争力，维持国际收支平衡；但由于近年来观察各国的贸易关系，发现这个观点不能得到有力的支持。本文对1998~2018年人民币、日元、欧元、美元的实际有效汇率指数，与中国、日本、德国、美国的经常帐和国际收支帐占GDP比率的关系，并结合时间趋势变量进行计量检验，考察是否存在“Bergsten-Mussa预期”引为依据的因果关系。计量检验发现，各国汇率变量的作用都高于时间趋势变量的作用，而中国较能符合“Bergsten-Mussa预期”。本文结论表明既然难以指望美国经常帐户逆差由于美元贬值而相应减少，那么人民币对美元升值也难以发挥帮助美国改善其国际收支平衡的作用。

关键词：有效汇率、经常账户逆差、国际收支平衡、伯格斯坦-穆萨预期

Abstract

Under the influence of global economic integration, balance-of-payments imbalances among countries reflect the allocation and structure of factors of production in countries. In order to reduce current account deficits, countries generally use devaluation measures to increase export competitiveness and maintain balance of payments. A review of recent interference in countries’ trade relations reveals that this view cannot be firmly supported. This paper measures the relationship between the real effective exchange rate indices of RMB, JPY, EUR, and USD for 1998-2018 with CA/GDP and BOP/GDP of China, Japan, Germany, and the US to measure the existence of a causal relationship based on the “Bergsten-Mussa Expectations”. Results found that each country's exchange rate variables functioned more than the time trend variable, while China was more in line with the “Bergsten-Mussa Expectation”. The conclusion shows that since it is difficult to expect the US current account deficit to decrease accordingly as a result of the depreciation of the US dollar, the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar will also be difficult to play a role in helping the US to improve its balance of payments.

Keywords: Effective Exchange Rate, Current Account Deficit, Balance of Payments, Bergstein-Mussa Expectations