本文选取中、日、德、美四国1990~2018年的国民收入及总吸收29年的数据资料，运用吸收分析法，在国际收支中对货币贬值效果进行实证分析。结果表明，四国的边际吸收倾向皆小于一，大小依序为日、美、德、中，显示四国经常项目符合国际收支吸收论，说明货币贬值作用对日、美两国有限，对中国最为显著，并不是解决所有国家贸易失衡的有效手段；要想从根本上逆转国际收支失衡，应该更多地关注一国经济的基本面。

关键词：吸收分析法、国际收支平衡、货币贬值

In this paper, the national income and total absorption of 29 years of data from 1990 to 2018 in China, Japan, Germany, and the United States were selected, and the effect of currency devaluation was empirically analyzed in the balance of payments using the absorption analysis method. The results show that the marginal propensity of absorption is less than one for all countries and the size is Japan, the United States, Germany, and China in order, showing that the current account of the four countries conforms to the absorption theory of balance of payments. Effect of currency devaluation is limited to Japan and the United States and is most significant for China. The results also demonstrate that currency devaluation is not an effective means to solve the trade imbalances of all countries. To fundamentally reverse the imbalance of payments, more attention should be paid to the fundamentals of a country's economy.

Keywords: Absorption Analysis, Balance of Payment, Currency Devaluation