由于猪肉价格是体现生猪市场乃至生猪产业稳定发展的重要内涵和外在表现，因此清楚的了解我国猪肉价格的波动性、探讨价格波动的特点和研究造成波动的原因等一系列问题，具有重要的现实意义。本文通过蛛网理论深入分析我国猪肉价格波动的状况，这种按供求关系周期波动的理论，以及节日需求刺激和突发事件引起的需求不旺等现象，和我国猪肉市场价格波动的规律是一致的。本文对2011年-2018年猪肉价格波动的特征、影响及导致猪肉价格波动的各种原因进行分析，藉以提出我国猪肉行业得以平稳发展的对策。

关键词：蛛网理论、生猪市场、价格波动

Since pork prices are very important connotation and external manifestation of the stable development of pork market and even pork industry, it is of great practical significance to understand the volatility of pork prices, to explore the characteristics of price fluctuations in depth, and to study the cause of fluctuations. This paper analyzes the situation of pork price fluctuation in China through Cobweb Theory, which is consistent with the fluctuation according to the relationship between supply and demand cycle, as well as the phenomenon of excess demand stimulated by festivals and shortage demand caused by incidents. Monthly data from 2011 to 2018 are applied to analyze the characteristics, effects and various causes of pork price fluctuation and to propose the countermeasures for the smooth development of pork industry in China.

Keywords: Cobweb Theory, Pork Market, Price Fluctuation